Recent Signals and Tematica Model Confirmation Points
Examining recent targeted exposure model confirmation points
We’re back with a fresh set of ripped-from-the-headlines confirmation points and signals for not only our targeted exposure and thematic strategies, but also our Digital Infrastructure & Connectivity model and the AI & Data Center Model Suite.
Before we get to them, a few days from now, we’ll have some exciting news to share with you. Stay tuned!
Now, feast away!
Aging Population
Apart from robotic vacuum cleaners, the closest thing many older adults have to caregiving robots is a speaker powered by an artificial intelligence voice assistant like Alexa. Some robot makers have expanded that concept into swiveling tabletop machines like ElliQ, designed for elder companionship. But those aren’t mobile or functional enough for Begum, who said she is “trying to reduce that caregiver burden. And the caregiver actually does way more than social companionship.” Humanoids, meanwhile, are still far from being useful in most homes and pose physical danger to people with limited mobility if the robot trips and falls. Read more here
NIC MAP data showed the active adult sector shed some occupancy in the first quarter of this year, but that amounted to growing pains as the sector added new units. Several operators who talked to Senior Housing News, including leaders of Amira Senior Living, Headwaters Group and Avenue, said they are gaining occupancy and seeing strong demand for their services in 2026. As such, they aren’t very worried about an overly negative impact of home prices on their growing operations… Read more here
Artificial Intelligence
Nearly three-quarters of doctors and 70% of nurses said they used AI at least once a week for work — significantly higher than last year, when 38% of doctors and 46% of nurses reported using the technology. Read more here
American firms are quickly outpacing their international counterparts at getting their employees to use AI. As reward for their efforts, they are also running up a monstrous bill, with lavish outlays on token costs, proprietary AI platforms, and just plain goofs, sometimes worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Read more here
Indeed, as companies increase adoption, Precedence Research estimates the global agentic AI market size will grow from $8 billion in 2025 to $199 billion by 2034, and PwC forecasts that its economic contribution could reach as high as $4.4 trillion annually by 2030. Read more here
Cash-Strapped Consumer
Americans are burning through their financial cushion at an accelerating pace, spending faster than their income is growing, as the energy shock from the Iran war slams household budgets… In 65 years of economic data, the personal saving rate — that is, what’s left of a paycheck after taxes and spending — has been lower only in two other periods: briefly in 2022 and in the mid-2000s, before the financial crisis. Read more here
Some Dollar General Corp. shoppers are cutting back on food and other household expenses due to rising gas prices, Chief Executive Officer Todd Vasos said on the company’s earnings call. “Our core customer continues to be financially constrained,”… Food companies have previously said that consumers are seeking bargains or buying products on sale, but they largely stopped short of saying shoppers were purchasing less food. Read more here
With the Iran war stretching into its fourth month, U.S. retail companies that have so far banked on a resilient consumer could face a tougher road ahead as rising gas prices and economic pain gradually erode the buffer. Results from Dollar Tree, Walmart, Gap and others in the past few weeks showed that consumers are still spending, but in an increasingly selective way, prioritizing essential upgrades and value-driven purchases, while pulling back on discretionary items… “Going forward, gas prices will be key, if they stay high through summer and back-to-school season, they could start putting more pressure on discretionary spending.” Read more here
Cybersecurity, Data Privacy & Digital Identity
Hackers gained access to the email account of a senior executive at a major global stock exchange and exfiltrated data for months. The attack, investigated by Broadcom’s Symantec and Carbon Black threat-hunting team, began in October 2025, and the threat actor retained access to the compromised Outlook mailbox until March 2026. The security experts estimate that the dwell time was roughly 150 days. Read more here
CISA, the FBI, the NSA, the Department of Energy, and other US government partners are warning that hackers are targeting internet-exposed automatic tank gauge (ATG) systems used to monitor fuel and liquid storage tanks across various critical infrastructure sectors. The cybersecurity agency says that ATG systems are commonly used in the Energy, Chemical, Food and Agriculture, and Transportation Systems sectors to remotely monitor storage tank levels, temperatures, and potential leaks. Read more here
A data breach at the dental benefits administrator DentaQuest has reportedly exposed the sensitive data of 2.6 million accounts… DentaQuest, part of Sun Life, is one of the largest dental benefits administrators in the United States. It manages dental insurance plans and provider networks for Medicaid programs, Medicare Advantage plans, employers, health plans, and individual customers. Read more here
Digital Infrastructure
Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers — Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL) — from fiscal year 2025 to fiscal year 2030. Prior to the start of first quarter earnings, this figure stood at $4.5 trillion. The baseline aggregate capex estimate stands at $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031, across compute, data centers, and power. Read more here
Ciena has talked about the significant acceleration in the total addressable market, but he said, “Over the next three years, we expect it will about double to $50 billion and within that $50 billion … about 70% or about $35 billion is optical…and that would include our classic optical systems business in the WAN, and our interconnects, our plugs and components inside the data center.” Read more here
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s global chip supply will fall short of AI-fueled demand for years to come, chief executive officer C.C. Wei said, suggesting production capacity remains a key bottleneck in the buildout of global computing infrastructure. TSMC won’t be able to fulfill demand led by American customers even as more manufacturing capacity comes online in the US over the next few years, Wei told shareholders on Thursday. Read more here
Digital Lifestyle
Analysts believe the headline at next week’s conference will be Apple’s long-overdue revamp of its digital assistant, Siri. Citi expects a new Siri app to resemble something like OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot while also serving as an AI assistant across applications on Apple’s operating systems. “Siri will handle multi-step requests, understand personal data, analyze on-screen content, generate emails or messages using both web and device context, and surface rich card-based results for everything from news to calendar data, while also completing actions across apps and shortcuts,” Read more here
The hottest destination for television advertising these days isn’t traditional national TV. Rather, streaming platforms are gobbling up a growing share of ad dollars as their audiences expand. After increasing rapidly in recent years, streaming ad spending is projected to approach $20 billion by 2029, not far off linear TV ad spending, according to estimates from ad consulting firm Madison and Wall… Ad-supported plans now represent almost 50% of all premium subscription video-on-demand sign-ups in the U.S., up from 39% just two years ago, according to research firm Antenna. Read more here
The increasing need for memory chips to power artificial intelligence data centers could lead to dramatic price hikes in U.S. consumer goods and disrupt supply chains, groups representing automakers, retailers, electronic firms and others said on Wednesday. The groups said in a letter to the U.S. Treasury and Commerce departments that “an urgent imbalance in the market for memory chips could lead to significant and sustained near-term price increases for American households and disrupt critical U.S. supply chains.” Read more here
Homebuilding & Materials
The typical homebuyer is making a smaller down payment this year, likely in an effort to preserve cash as economic uncertainty lingers and costs rise. The median down payment in March was 15%, compared to 16.1% a year earlier, according to a Redfin report. In dollar terms, the median down payment is now about $64,000. Read more here
American homebuyers have found plenty of villains for today’s brutal housing market: the Federal Reserve, Wall Street landlords, even their baby boomer parents who refuse to move. But Bank of America Research argues the real culprit is hiding in plain sight in your own backyard. Read more here
Luxury Buying Boom
Across the board, advisors reported strong performance, with luxury proving to be the most resilient segment of the travel market. For Michael Snyder, director of sales for Marriott International’s Edition brand, the story is in the numbers. “Rates have held. Length of stay and other key metrics continue to grow,” he said. “Luxury is the segment that is hanging on and is reliable.” Read more here
The recent economic slowdown is weighing on the growth prospects and profitability of the world’s largest luxury companies. New research from procurement and supply chain consultancy Inverto suggests the time has come for a renewed focus on smarter cost management… Analysis by Inverto finds that profitability has not kept pace. Profit margins at the world’s 20 largest luxury goods groups have fallen sharply, dropping from an average of 24% in 2022 to around 13% today. Digging deeper into company financials, Inverto found that 10 of the 20 luxury companies analysed have seen their profit margins decline in recent years, while another five are currently operating at a loss. Read more here
Safety & Security
The Springfield Police Department’s Body-Worn Camera Program marked its sixth anniversary on Wednesday. The program, which launched on June 3, 2020, has seen just under 500 sworn officers and supervisors record more than 127,000 hours of footage. The initiative has enhanced transparency and accountability in police-public interactions within Springfield. The body-worn cameras are considered an essential tool for building community trust, aiding the District Attorney’s Office in prosecutions, and reducing citizen complaints. Read more here
Body-worn cameras in correctional facilities are doing the critical work of collecting high-quality video and audio evidence — and much more. With a boost from artificial intelligence (AI), body cameras are helping process video, perform numerous administrative tasks, and enhance safety and security in a more intelligent and proactive way. As the leading manufacturer of body-worn cameras for law enforcement and correctional facilities, Axon Enterprise is at the forefront of a strategic shift from paper-based records to a streamlined and intelligent system of cameras, cloud-based evidence management and AI-driven incident reporting. Read more here
The Pentagon’s FY2027 budget request includes $54.6 billion for autonomous weapons and AI—comparable to peak Afghanistan war spending—and is anchored in the Replicator Initiative to mass-produce attritable platforms. This marks a doctrinal shift toward distributed, networked warfare, aiming to field thousands of systems quickly to counter China and emulate Ukraine’s drone successes. Read more here
The Strategies Behind Our AI & Data Center Ecosystem Models
Artificial Intelligence – Software, chips, and related companies that facilitate the collection and analysis of large data sets and autonomous generation of solutions given non-machine language prompts.
CHIPs Act – Capturing the reshoring of the US semiconductor industry and the $52.7 billion poised to be spent on semiconductor manufacturing.
Cloud Computing – Companies that provide hardware and services that enhance the cloud computing experience for users, such as co-location, security, and edge computing.
Digital Infrastructure & Connectivity - Companies that are integral to the development and the buildout of the infrastructure that supports our increasingly connected world.
Nuclear Energy & Uranium – Companies that either build and maintain nuclear power plants or are involved in the production of uranium.
Power Pain Point – Companies benefiting from the global push to build out new electricity generation, transmission and storage infrastructure, as well as update existing generations old infrastructure.
The Strategies Behind Our Core Exposure Models
EPS Diplomats - Profitable large capitalization companies proven to produce above-average EPS growth and provide investors with the benefit of multiple expansion.
Core Holdings – Companies that reflect economic activity and are large enough to not get pushed around by day-to-day market trends. Low-beta, large-cap names able to better withstand economic turmoil.
International Core Holdings – This model focuses on Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that provide a range of exposures from ex-US developed market equities to emerging market equities, and global Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Global Core Holdings - This model focuses on Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that provide a range of exposures from US, and other developed market equities to emerging market equities, and global Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).
Market Hedge Model – This basket of daily reset swap-based broad market inverse ETFs protects in the face of market pullbacks, overbought market technicals, and other drivers of market volatility.
The Strategies Behind Our Targeted Exposure Models
Aging of the Population - Capturing the demographic wave of the aging population and the changing demands it brings with it.
Cash Strapped Consumers - Companies poised to benefit as consumers stretch the disposable spending dollars they do have.
Cybersecurity - Companies that focus on protecting against the penetration of digital networks and the theft, ransom, corruption, or destruction of data.
Data Privacy & Digital Identity - Companies providing the tools and services that verify authorized users and safeguard personal data privacy.
Digital Lifestyle - The companies behind our increasingly connected lives.
Digital Payments - Companies benefitting from the accelerating structural adoption of digital payments and financial technology (FinTech).
EV Transition - Capturing the transition to EVs and related infrastructure from combustion engine vehicles.
Guilty Pleasure – Companies that produce/provide food and drink products that consumers tend to enjoy regardless of the economic environment and potential long-term health hazards associated with excessive consumption.
Homebuilding & Materials – Ranging from homebuilders to key building product companies that serve the housing market, this model looks to capture the rising demand for housing, one that should benefit as the Fed returns monetary policy to more normalized levels.
Luxury Buying Boom - Tapping into aspirational buying and affluent buyers amid rising global wealth.
Rebuilding America - Turning the focused spending on rebuilding US infrastructure into revenue and profits.
Safety & Security – Targeted exposure to companies that provide goods and services primarily to the Defense and security sectors of the economy.
Space Economy – Companies that focus on the launch and operation of satellite networks.
The Strategies Behind Our Dividend Income Models
Monthly Dividend Model – Pretty much what the name indicates – this model invests in companies that pay monthly dividends to shareholders.
ETF Dividend Model – High-yielding ETFs that provide a range of exposures from domestic equities, international equities, emerging market equities, MLPS, and REITs.
ETF Enhanced Dividend Model – A group of high-yielding ETFs that utilize options to enhance yield through collecting option income.
Don’t be a stranger
Thanks for reading and if you have a suggestion for an article or book we should read, or a stream we should catch, email us at mabssy@tematicaresearch.com. The same email works if you want to know more about our thematic and targeted exposure models listed above.